Episode Transcript
David Sol : Good day, listeners and viewers, and welcome to this FTSE Russell Convenes podcast.
I’m David Sol, your host, and I’m joined today by someone who I consider the best geopolitical analyst, Tina Fordham from Fordham Global Foresight. In this episode, we’re going to reflect on 2025, and Tina will then share our outlook for next year. Welcome back, Tina.
Tina Fordham : Thanks for having me, David.
David Sol : Now, Tina, 2025 has been such an eventful year. There have been tariffs. The markets have focused on the relationship between China and the US. Russia, Ukraine, AI — so many themes. How do you reflect back and think about 2025?
Tina Fordham : It’s really been quite a year. When we think about the optimism with which market participants started the year, there was an expectation of a Trump bump after years of high inflation under President Biden, and high hopes for peace in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. That all met with some shock and surprise, really crystallised around the Liberation Day tariff announcements.
Other geostrategic developments during the year included attacks on Iran and conflicts cropping up elsewhere — Thailand, Cambodia, India, Pakistan, and several in Africa — as well as military deployment around Venezuela in the Caribbean.
It’s been intense, and you and I have known each other for a long time. We’ve been talking about geopolitics and markets for over a decade, and I do think this was the year that C suite leaders, in particular, had a wake up call that geopolitical risk was not a blip, but here to stay.
Our research on the geopolitics supercycle illustrated how geopolitical risks have been accelerating over time, but I think this was the year everyone got the memo. Of course, the diverging message came from markets, where we saw very robust performance. In other episodes of The Navigator, we’ve discussed how the signal versus noise construct isn’t helpful for understanding the current constellation of risks and how they interact with markets, because geopolitics is about power. The changing power dynamic is reshaping the global environment, even if it has not yet impacted asset or share prices in the way we might expect.
David Sol : For investors, change is about catalysts. If you think about the risks of 2025 and those heading into 2026, how are those risks shifting? We’ve spoken in previous episodes about unknown unknown risks and new risks emerging. How do you think about that transition?
Tina Fordham : There’s a lot to consider. The simplest way to structure the future is to start with the known knowns and the signposts. With that in mind, most year ahead lists are focused on the US mid term elections. This never used to be a market moving event, but with a White House pursuing such an ambitious and far reaching policy agenda, who controls Congress matters greatly.
The affordability crisis was brought into sharp relief during America’s off cycle elections. Given President Trump’s importance on the world stage, and the emerging dynamics between the United States, Russia and China, the mid terms will be an important clue, although I am not sure they will change the policy trajectory.
Outside the US, one of the most important signposts I am watching is the election in Hungary in April. Hungary is a medium sized European economy, which might make this surprising, but it is a regional manufacturing hub. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been on the scene for a long time. I once had lunch with him around fifteen years ago in Budapest, before he became prime minister, during what I call his Soros phase.
Hungary is pivotal because of its complex relationship with the European Union, including its resistance to supporting Ukraine, particularly regarding frozen Russian assets held in Belgium. Orbán enjoys support from President Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, while also facing a challenger, Péter Magyar. There is potential for a change of government, but I am also watching whether Orbán attempts to adapt the constitution to remain in power, something we have seen elsewhere, including Turkey.
This election would not normally command much attention, but it is one of my most important European signposts.
David Sol : When we look at the news in 2025, it can feel like doom and gloom. Are there reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the future?
Tina Fordham : I am always uncomfortable with the doom and gloom framing of geopolitics. Conflict is certainly disturbing, but much of what we discuss is really about change, and change is unstoppable. We are moving out of the post Second World War order and Pax Americana, a shift that has been underway for many years. I wrote a paper titled Goodbye Pax Americana more than a decade ago, and when I reread it recently, it was remarkably accurate.
It reminds investors that structural change moves slowly. Changing power dynamics between countries affect companies, and conversations with board and C suite leaders increasingly centre on moving away from just in time optimisation towards resilience. That may feel old fashioned and will be more expensive, with significant implications for supply chains. At the same time, technology continues to race ahead, adding more complexity to manage.
David Sol : At the beginning of 2025, we discussed the term “geopolitical denialism” as a way of framing the year. What word captures your thinking for 2026?
Tina Fordham : Geopolitical denialism is now behind us. The conversation has shifted towards what to do, how to position, and how to structure. My word for 2026 is “predator”. It captures the essence of today’s power dynamic — might makes right, the law of the jungle. That is a difficult message, unless you are the predator.
The term was inspired by a book by Giuliano da Empoli, which I highly recommend. It is an easy and entertaining read, but also substantive, drawing on interviews and historical parallels, including comparisons between the rise of the Borgias and today’s technology sector. It crystallises the idea of a predatory environment emerging as the rules of the game become less relevant, or even disappear.
David Sol : Thank you, Tina, for sharing your thoughts. And thank you to the listeners and viewers of the FTSE Russell Convenes podcast. This is our last podcast of the year, and I look forward to speaking with you next year. For now, I wish you a very happy and healthy 2026.
